For a quick second, it seemed like a federal commerce court docket would halt President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, leaving everybody to surprise what that might imply for value hikes. However by the top of the next day one other court docket had stepped in so we’re again to questioning when and if reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s proposed 25% Apple tariff will kick in. So you may forgive us if we do not sound very sure about how all of this might have an effect on the value of the brand new iPhone.
We will not even assure that it will likely be referred to as iPhone 17, contemplating Apple might rebrand its working system this fall in order that the present iOS18 is changed by iOS 26.
Apple spent a lot of the early a part of this 12 months dodging tariffs, stockpiling phones before tariffs took impact and making an exemption list for a lot of of its merchandise. However its luck appeared to expire after Apple CEO Tim Cook dinner introduced throughout a Could 1 earnings name that US iPhone production would principally be sourced from India. A couple of weeks later, Trump threatened Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outdoors the US.
Is that tariff on high of the paused reciprocal tariffs? Whereas it might be unrealistic for Apple to go alongside the overall price of the tariff to customers (who’s going to purchase a $4,000 iPhone?), it additionally appears unlikely that the tech large may soak up the prices of a 170% tariff hike (that is 25% Apple tariff + 145% reciprocal tariff on China, the place Apple has produced most of its iPhones).
Plus, there are many elements that may have an effect on the value of an iPhone, together with manufacturing prices and the general health of the US economy. My colleague Patrick Holland has been reviewing telephones for CNET since 2016 and monitoring costs through the years. He says the new iPhone is due for a price hike no matter what occurs with tariffs.
Apple didn’t reply to a request for remark for an earlier model of this story.
We can’t know the precise value for the following iPhone till its launch, which is expected to be in September. However we have pored over all of the leaks, rumors and predictions about costs and we discovered methods that will help you save if a brand new iPhone is in your future.
Learn extra: Want to Buy a New iPhone? Now’s Not the Time and Here’s Why
How tariffs may have an effect on the price of the following iPhone
Amid Trump’s ongoing tariff bender, increased reciprocal tariffs are presently on pause. Nevertheless, Trump took to social media on Could 28, threatening Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outdoors the US, though the timeline is unclear. There’s presently a ten% baseline tariff on all imports and a 30% tariff on items from China, the place Apple nonetheless manufactures most of its merchandise. These charges may begin to rise in July when the preliminary tariff pause expires, which may result in increased costs on every little thing — together with the rumored iPhone 17.
The tech large has moved some US iPhone production from China to India, which presently has a decrease tariff fee. Nevertheless, Trump referred to as out Apple CEO Tim Cook dinner to as a substitute transfer iPhone manufacturing to the US. Most specialists contemplate this an unrealistic demand, particularly within the brief time period, due to increased labor and manufacturing prices within the US. Estimates have recommended {that a} US-made iPhone would cost as much as $3,500.
That leaves costs for the following iPhone in limbo. Trump’s administration referred to as the exemption record “non permanent” in early April, saying that exemptions would finish in “a month or two.” Across the similar time, Trump stated that semiconductors, which energy tech merchandise, will ultimately be positioned in a special “tariff bucket.” Nevertheless, no particulars have been shared in regards to the timeline or anticipated tariff percentages.
With all of the reprieves appearing to be temporary, tariffs may nonetheless doubtlessly have an effect on costs by the point the rumored iPhone 17 is anticipated to be launched.
If the unique reciprocal tariff pause expires, for example, taxes on imports from India would rise from 10% to 26% beginning in July. If the 90-day pause for China expires, tariffs on that nation would soar from 30% to 145% in August. It is unclear if Apple’s 25% tariff could be along with or as a substitute of particular person nations’ import duties.
Specialists level out {that a} tariff fee hike does not essentially imply an iPhone’s value would improve on the similar fee however most anticipate at the least some affect.
And the place the telephone is assembled is barely a part of the tariff equation. Apple sources parts for the iPhone from dozens of different nations, which may additionally doubtlessly have an effect on the value.
Based mostly on the place tariffs stand now, here is how a lot you may doubtlessly pay for the following iPhone based mostly on present iPhone 16 costs. These are our estimates and never official pricing from Apple:
Potential iPhone value with reciprocal tariffs
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $659 | $755 | $779 | $1,468 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $912 | $1,045 | $1,078 | $2,031 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,022 | $1,171 | $1,208 | $2,276 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,099 | $1,259 | $1,299 | $2,448 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,319 | $1,511 | $1,559 | $2,938 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $1,759 | $2,015 | $2,079 | $3,918 |
If the 25% Apple tariff takes impact, here is the potential value improve for a brand new iPhone, based mostly on the present iPhone 16 costs. Once more, Apple is unlikely to boost costs at a 1-to-1 fee with tariff hikes however this desk incorporates reciprocal and potential Apple particular tariffs to calculate potential costs:
Potential iPhone costs with reciprocal and Apple tariffs mixed
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $809 | $904 | $928 | $1,617 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $1,119 | $1,252 | $1,285 | $2,238 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,254 | $1,403 | $1,440 | $2,508 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,349 | $1,508 | $1,548 | $2,697 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,619 | $1,810 | $1,858 | $3,237 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $2,159 | $2,414 | $2,478 | $4,317 |
What else may trigger the brand new iPhone’s value to extend?
Trump instantly criticized retailers like Amazon and Walmart after they recommended that tariffs may end in increased costs so it stands to cause that Apple will not immediately blame tariffs for potential value hikes that might provoke a Trump tirade.
Somewhat, Apple may attribute the value improve to improved options and design prices. No matter tariffs, Apple has plans to raise iPhone prices this 12 months, The Wall Road Journal reported.
Specialists say Apple could also be overdue for a value improve anyway. It has been 5 years because the fundamental iPhone mannequin elevated in value and every iteration of the iPhone typically improves on options from the earlier model.
Holland notes that the bottom iPhone mannequin hasn’t gone up in value since 2020. His analysis factors to the usual iPhone mannequin’s value rising roughly each 5 years, between $50 and $130. Based mostly on this proof and the iPhone 16’s present value of $829, we may anticipate the brand new iPhone to price someplace between $879 and $959.
What is going to the iPhone 17 Air price?
Early rumors had the iPhone 17 Air topping the iPhone Pro in value. Nevertheless, a March Bloomberg report recommended the telephone may price about $900, just like the present iPhone 16 Plus’s price ticket. These estimates are based mostly on the present prices and will not embody the potential affect tariffs may have on an ultrathin iPhone’s value.
How the economic system may have an effect on iPhone costs
Uncertainty within the US economic system — partially due to the aforementioned tariff turmoil — has left many cautious about what’s to return. Whereas the latest settlement with China to pause tariffs helped the inventory market to principally recuperate from the dive it took after Trump’s Liberation Day, that reprieve affords solely non permanent reduction.
Considerations in regards to the dangers of upper unemployment and better inflation have left the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode for lowering interest rates. Larger rates of interest may cause firms like Apple to tug again on spending and funding. Mixed with increased tariffs, that pullback may doubtlessly result in international provide chain disruptions. Fewer iPhones out there available in the market may result in increased costs.
If inflation resurges, rising prices may power Apple to extend the following iPhone’s value.
One tiny shiny aspect, in idea, is {that a} weakening economic system may power Apple to carry off on elevating costs so it could keep aggressive. However that will not provide a lot comfort in case you’re apprehensive about spending cash due to a possible recession.
Will older iPhones price extra, too?
One approach to save on Apple products is to purchase final 12 months’s mannequin as a substitute of the most recent launch. Nevertheless, if the brand new iPhone is dramatically costlier when it is launched, demand may improve for the older fashions and that might result in value hikes on older fashions, too.
The flip aspect of that is that if the brand new iPhone’s costs rise and you’ve got an older iPhone, your previous iPhone would additionally possible improve in worth, Holland stated.
Buying and selling or selling a used iPhone may also help offset the associated fee in case you do resolve to purchase the brand new iPhone.
Different methods Apple may elevate costs
Even when Apple decides to carry the following iPhone’s value regular, there are different methods for the tech large to recoup elevated prices.
Apple may doubtlessly offset the affect of tariffs by elevating the value on its companies — together with its music, information and knowledge plans — in accordance with provide chain professional Joe Hudicka.
“We’ll see these markups within the subscription companies first as a result of they will seem smaller,” he stated. “Shoppers will nonetheless pay, simply not suddenly.”
Ought to we imagine rumors and hypothesis about iPhone costs?
So significantly, how a lot is a brand new iPhone going to price? The reality is, we won’t say with any certainty what the ultimate numbers will likely be. Our assessments are based mostly on ever-changing tariff insurance policies, previous pricing traits, rumors and leaks which are generally based mostly on insider information. However till Apple releases the rumored iPhone 17, we are able to solely provide our greatest estimates for a way a lot the ultimate price ticket will likely be.
